【招银研究】海外重启宽松，国内股强债弱——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.09.15-09.19）

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to expand, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.1%, driven by stable consumer momentum and strong investment in technology [2] - Jobless claims have increased, with initial claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest in four years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Inflation remains manageable, with August PPI unexpectedly dropping to 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, while CPI slightly increased to 2.9% [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The US is expected to restart monetary easing, with market participants fully pricing in three rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in private sector financing costs [3] - The 30-year mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to 6.25%, and the 10-year AAA corporate bond yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.26% [3] - US stock markets rose, influenced by the Fed's dovish outlook, although valuations are considered high, with future gains expected to come from corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Short-term interest rates are expected to decline as the easing cycle begins, but the long-term rates may remain volatile due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to average 4.3% this year and 4.2% next year, with a fluctuation range of 3.5% to 5% [4] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is anticipated to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with a fluctuation range of 95 to 103, due to the dual support of easing monetary policy and fiscal expansion [5] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong stance in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from changes in the A-share market and US rate cut expectations [5] - Gold is viewed positively, benefiting from the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global central bank purchases [5] Group 5: China Economic Insights - China's economy is showing signs of slowdown, with external demand weakening and internal demand potentially continuing to decline [7] - August macro data indicates a drop in export and import growth rates, with exports to the US declining by 33.1% [7] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize growth in key industries, including the automotive sector, with a target of approximately 3% growth in overall vehicle sales by 2025 [9] Group 6: Market Strategy and Recommendations - The current market sentiment favors equities over bonds, with a recommendation to hold short to medium-duration bonds while being cautious with long-duration investments [12] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%, supported by liquidity and favorable policies [13] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining dividend stocks as a stable base, while allocating to growth sectors like technology and healthcare for potential gains [14]