数据点评 | 8月经济：“反内卷”影响开始显现（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The impact of "anti-involution" on mid- and downstream production and investment is beginning to manifest [2][71] Production - Upstream production remains strong, but the influence of "anti-involution" is starting to show in mid- and downstream sectors. In August, industrial added value year-on-year decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2%. Upstream sectors like coal mining performed well, while mid- and downstream sectors such as transportation equipment (-1.7 percentage points to 12%), metal products (-1.4 percentage points to 2.8%), and food production (-1.8 percentage points to 2%) saw declines [2][8][71] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline in August, primarily due to the impact of "anti-involution" on mid- and downstream investments, compounded by the ongoing contraction in new projects affecting current real estate investments. Fixed asset investment year-on-year fell by 1.0 percentage points to -6.3%, with construction and installation investment dropping significantly (-5 percentage points to -11.1%). Real estate investment saw the largest decline (-2.4 percentage points to -19.4%), while manufacturing investment also decreased (-0.9 percentage points to -1.2%) [2][13][71] Real Estate - On the demand side, sales and housing prices continue to decline, while the supply chain of "new starts-restarts-investment-completion" remains weak. In August, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and the sales amount decreased by 14.0%. The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies remains negative (-8.1%), with new starts down (-4.8 percentage points to -20.3%) and real estate investment continuing to decline (-2.4 percentage points to -19.5%) [3][22][72] Consumption - Some "trade-in" products are showing signs of decline, while service consumption remains relatively stable. In August, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, household appliances (-14.4 percentage points to 14.3%) and communication equipment (-7.6 percentage points to 7.3%) experienced significant declines [3][29][55] Summary - The effects of "anti-involution" on domestic supply and demand are becoming evident, but external demand is expected to continue contributing to economic resilience. The economic landscape in September shows weak domestic demand and strong external demand. Future focus should be on the pressures of internal demand, including the impact of "anti-involution" on production and investment, as well as the lagging effects of previous real estate project contractions [4][33][73]