国泰海通｜电子：商务部发起模拟IC反倾销调查，国产替代加速

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the United States, which is expected to enhance both profitability and market share for the domestic analog chip industry [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The investigation was launched on September 13, 2025, focusing on the period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, regarding pricing and sales behavior of relevant products from the U.S. [1] - The investigation aims to assess the long-term impact of U.S. imported chips on the domestic industry, covering data from 2022 to 2024, with a completion date expected by September 13, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Dynamics - A price war initiated by Texas Instruments in May 2023 led to a price reduction of up to 50% for power management and signal chain chips, significantly impacting market dynamics and squeezing profit margins for domestic manufacturers [2]. - From 2022 to 2024, the volume of imported products from the U.S. increased by 37%, while prices dropped by 52%, indicating a substantial negative impact on domestic sales prices and operations [2]. Group 3: Market Share and Domestic Replacement - China is projected to account for approximately 35% of the global analog chip market in 2024, with a market size exceeding 200 billion RMB [3]. - The domestic replacement rate for analog chips has increased from single digits in 2019 to 16% in 2024, although it remains relatively low [3]. - The supply chain for analog chips has matured, ensuring sufficient capacity, and future growth is expected as domestic manufacturers penetrate higher-end markets such as automotive and industrial sectors [3].