研客专栏 | 鸡蛋：如何看待近月合约放量上涨

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in near-term futures is supported by the recent rise in spot prices, market expectations for excessive culling in late September and October, and technical factors such as gap openings and previous support levels, aided by speculative funds [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In September, while production capacity peaks are expected, the reduction in capacity will take time, and only excessive culling in October and November can improve the current oversupply situation [5]. - The government has been promoting capacity reduction in the pig industry since June, but the effects have not been significant. For eggs, while no explicit measures have been announced, environmental policies may restrict the expansion of large-scale poultry farms [6]. - The sentiment for culling has slowed down recently, and if spot prices exceed expectations, market confidence may recover, potentially leading to slower culling rates and exacerbating supply pressures post-holiday [6]. Spot Price Trends - Since September, spot prices have been driven up by demand from schools and food processing companies preparing for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with the average price of eggs in major production areas rising to 3.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.43 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month [9]. - The inventory levels in production and circulation have decreased, with production inventory at 0.45 days and circulation inventory at 0.73 days as of September 12 [9]. Production and Culling Data - As of the end of August 2025, the number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.3172 billion [18]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a slowdown in replenishment sentiment since June, with expectations for a slight decline in the number of laying hens in September [18]. - The average culling price for hens was 4.65 yuan/kg as of September 12, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month, with culling volumes showing some divergence in data but generally indicating a faster culling pace [24]. Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of September 9, the feed price was 2.71 yuan/kg, and the profit from egg production was 0.05 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in profitability due to rising egg prices [23]. - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of a potential increase in culling volumes around the Mid-Autumn Festival, depending on the spot price trends [24]. Futures Market Analysis - The near-term and main contracts are closely aligned due to the delivery of eggs in October, with recent spot price rebounds leading to a narrowing basis [31]. - The market sentiment appears bullish, but the underlying supply-demand conditions may not support sustained price increases, indicating a potential for price corrections [31].