POP MART(HK:09992) 凤凰网财经·2025-09-15 14:22Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline, dropping 23.78% from its historical high of 339.8 HKD per share, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding 100 billion HKD [4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 6.43% to close at 259 HKD per share, with an intraday drop of 8.96%, leading to a total market value of 347.8 billion HKD [2]. - Since reaching its peak, the stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 2.16% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "neutral," citing a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation levels [4]. - The recent product launches, including the SKULLPANDA series, have not generated the expected consumer interest, as evidenced by low queue numbers during the release [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Consumer Demand - The online sales of the new SKULLPANDA blind boxes showed volatility, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 units shortly after, indicating potential high return rates [5]. - The launch of the gold jewelry series "popop" also failed to attract significant consumer interest, with no queues reported at retail locations [5]. Group 4: Secondary Market Trends - Data from second-hand trading platforms indicate a decline in the popularity of Pop Mart's IPs, with the average transaction price for Labubu's fourth generation dropping from 1916 RMB to 1422 RMB [6]. - On the Xianyu platform, the average transaction price fell to 104 RMB, with 68% of users expecting further price declines [6]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - An economist noted that the stock price of collectible toy companies is correlated with product market demand, suggesting that the current decline in prices may continue if new IPs are not consistently produced [8]. - The sustainability of the collectible toy market's value relies on diversifying offerings and continuously generating new IPs to meet varying consumer preferences [8].