从“政策附属”到“市场主角”：中国储能行业迈入新纪元

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the energy storage industry in China, highlighting the recent regulatory changes that position energy storage as an independent market entity, which is expected to drive innovation and investment in the sector [4][5]. Group 1: Macro Background of the Energy Storage Industry - The global energy transition is irreversible, driven by energy security, climate change, and declining costs of renewable energy, with "carbon neutrality" becoming a common strategy for major economies [5]. - By 2024, global new energy storage installations are expected to reach 46.8 GW/98.2 GWh, with a five-year compound growth rate of 58% [5]. - China is the largest demand and supply market for energy storage, with a target of over 30 GW of new energy storage installations by 2025 and a fully market-oriented approach by 2030 [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Routes - Current energy storage technologies are dominated by lithium-ion batteries, with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) accounting for over 90% of the power share [7]. - Sodium-ion batteries are gaining traction due to their cost advantages and performance in low-temperature scenarios, while vanadium and iron-chromium flow batteries are emerging as long-duration storage options [7][8]. - Emerging technologies like gravity storage and solid-state batteries are being developed, with the latter expected to enter large-scale applications around 2030 [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The energy storage industry chain consists of upstream raw materials, midstream system integration, and downstream applications [10]. - Upstream, the cost of raw materials like lithium and nickel remains high, but recent price declines have occurred [10][11]. - Midstream system integration is crucial for value creation, with a focus on large-capacity cells and advanced thermal management [10][11]. Group 4: Development Trends - The focus is shifting from single-point breakthroughs to system-level optimization, with lithium-ion batteries remaining dominant while sodium-ion batteries are expected to scale in cost-sensitive applications [12]. - Long-duration storage technologies are anticipated to commercialize, with flow batteries and compressed air storage becoming key players in grid-level peak shaving [12][13]. - The competition will increasingly rely on AI-driven lifecycle management and intelligent systems for maximizing asset returns [13]. Group 5: Challenges - Supply chain challenges persist, with price volatility in raw materials and geopolitical risks affecting cost control [18]. - Fragmented domestic electricity market rules complicate revenue models for energy storage, leading to higher financing costs [18][19]. - The industry faces a "trial and error" approach to scaling new technologies, with safety and certification issues impacting large-scale deployment [19].