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数据点评 | 8月经济:“反内卷”影响开始显现(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索·2025-09-15 16:03

Core Viewpoint - The impact of "anti-involution" on mid- and downstream production and investment is beginning to show [2][71] Production - Upstream production remains strong, but "anti-involution" is affecting mid- and downstream production, with industrial added value in August decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% [2][71] - Specific sectors such as coal mining are performing well, while transportation equipment, metal products, and downstream sectors like beverages and food are experiencing declines [2][71] Investment - Fixed asset investment continues to decline, primarily due to the impact of "anti-involution" on mid- and downstream investment, compounded by a reduction in new construction projects affecting current real estate investment [2][71] - In August, fixed asset investment fell by 1.0 percentage points to -6.3%, with construction and installation investment dropping significantly by 5 percentage points to -11.1% [2][71] - Real estate investment saw the largest decline, down 2.4 percentage points to -19.4%, while manufacturing investment also decreased by 0.9 percentage points to -1.2% [2][71] Real Estate - Demand-side sales and housing prices continue to decline, with the supply chain of "new construction-rework-investment-completion" also weakening [3][72] - In August, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 2.7% year-on-year, while the sales amount decreased by 14.0% [3][72] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies remains negative at -8.1%, with new construction down 4.8 percentage points to -20.3% [3][72] Consumption - Some "trade-in" products are showing signs of decline, while service consumption remains relatively stable [3][72] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in home appliances and communication equipment [3][72] Summary - The effects of "anti-involution" on domestic supply and demand are becoming evident, but external demand is expected to continue contributing to economic resilience, with manageable downward pressure anticipated in the second half of the year [4][73] - The economic landscape in September shows weak domestic demand and strong external demand, with a focus on monitoring the impacts of "anti-involution" and the lagging effects of reduced new construction projects in real estate [4][73]