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宋雪涛:A股第三轮重估渐行渐近
雪涛宏观笔记·2025-09-16 00:10

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in investment strategies, suggesting that investors should either stay invested or wait for the right moment to enter the market, as there are still opportunities for growth despite current market fluctuations [4][5][6][15]. Investment Suggestions - Stay Invested: Investors currently in the market should not rush to exit, as there is potential for continued inflow of domestic and foreign capital. The ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization is historically high, indicating significant capital available for investment [6][14]. - Wait for Entry: For those not yet invested, it is advised to be patient. Current market conditions resemble those of early 2015, where economic fundamentals are stabilizing, and liquidity is improving, suggesting a potential for a more sustainable market rally in the coming years [15][16]. - No Need to Worry About Downturns: Even if the market experiences declines, there is no need for concern. The systemic risks that previously affected the market are gradually being controlled, and the resilience of Chinese enterprises and consumer spending remains strong [28][31]. Configuration Directions - Finding Certainty in Stagflation: In a stagflation environment, the focus should be on assets that can outperform inflation, such as high-dividend stocks, physical assets, and gold. These assets provide stable cash flow and are less affected by currency depreciation and geopolitical risks [38][39]. - Technology as a Hope for Breakthrough: Investment in technology is crucial for overcoming economic stagnation. The article suggests that while identifying leading companies in technology is challenging, diversifying across the tech sector can yield positive returns [40]. - Alpha in Transition: Unique opportunities arising from China's economic transition should be explored, particularly in three areas: international expansion, industrial upgrading, and down-market consumption. Companies that successfully navigate these areas are likely to see significant profit growth [41][42].