Open RAN已死？

Core Viewpoint - Mavenir's CEO warns that without support from "brownfield" operators, Open RAN may face extinction, leading to a monopoly by Ericsson and Nokia outside of China [1][4] Group 1: Open RAN Development - Open RAN was officially launched in early 2018 with the establishment of the O-RAN Alliance, aimed at creating more open interfaces to foster competition among suppliers [3] - Since the formation of the O-RAN Alliance, there have been few new "greenfield" network projects, with the largest network owned by Echostar set to retire after selling spectrum licenses to AT&T and SpaceX [3][4] - Major existing "brownfield" operators show a lack of interest in Open RAN, preferring traditional suppliers like Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia, whose RAN market share increased from 75.1% in 2023 to 77.4% [4] Group 2: Market Competition - Nokia's mobile networks president asserts that competition in the market is more intense than critics suggest, with companies like Samsung, Fujitsu, and NEC also participating [5] - Omdia reports that Samsung held a 4.8% share of the RAN market last year, ranking as the fifth-largest supplier, while NEC and Fujitsu had shares of 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively [5] Group 3: Technological Integration - Nokia claims to have integrated its baseband technology with multiple manufacturers' radio units, including Mavenir and a Korean RF unit manufacturer [6] - Nokia's MantaRay platform allows operators to manage RAN from different suppliers, addressing concerns about multi-vendor integration in Open RAN [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite positive remarks from Nokia regarding Open RAN's progress, concerns remain among large telecom operators about the sub-industry's prospects, with projected annual spending on RAN products declining by 22% from 2022 to 2024 [12] - Smaller suppliers like Mavenir may struggle to compete against larger companies like Fujitsu and NEC, which have the backing of larger electronic firms [12][13]