兴业证券王涵 | 对本轮市场行情的思考——怎么理解、如何演进、到哪儿了？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current capital market trend is supported by three core pillars: the global transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2][9][11] Group 1: Understanding the Macro Logic of the Current Market - The current market trend is underpinned by three main pillars: the century-long transformation, financial reform, and strategic adjustments towards the U.S. [2] - The core contradiction of the Chinese economy lies externally, with globalization being a key factor in overcoming challenges [3][8]. Group 2: The Three Core Pillars - Pillar One: Globalization and Economic Transformation - China's industrial capacity expansion has been driven by industrialization, urbanization, and globalization, with China accounting for approximately 17% of the global population and 34% of industrial output [3]. - The current phase of these processes shows a slowdown in demand, leading to excess capacity [3][4]. - Embracing globalization can help alleviate supply-demand contradictions and stabilize the real estate market by expanding the customer base beyond domestic demand [5][6][7]. - Pillar Two: Financial Reform - Since the 20th National Congress, the capital market's pivotal role has been reinforced, with significant policy changes highlighting the importance of finance [9][10]. - The restructuring of financial institutions indicates a historical elevation of the capital market's status within the national financial system [9][10]. - Pillar Three: Risk Appetite and U.S. Strategy - A shift in China's strategy towards the U.S. has positively influenced investor risk appetite, with a more proactive approach since late 2024 [11][12]. - Increased transparency regarding China's industrial advancements has bolstered investor confidence in the economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Market Trend and Phases - The market is expected to undergo two phases: an initial valuation-driven phase followed by a fundamental-driven phase [14][17]. - The first phase focuses on valuation expansion, driven by the competition for global economic order, with three main lines of focus: hard power sectors, technology breakthroughs, and leading manufacturing firms expanding internationally [15][16]. - The second phase will see a shift towards fundamental improvements across various sectors, reflecting a broader market engagement [17]. Group 4: Current Market Stage Assessment - The overall valuation is reasonable, with major indices at historical median levels, indicating no widespread overvaluation [18][20]. - The market capitalization of A-shares remains below China's GDP share, suggesting low financial bubble risks [20]. - Investor sentiment is stable, with no signs of panic, and institutional holdings are diversified, reducing the risk of market crashes [22]. - There is significant potential for additional capital inflow from the bond market and foreign investments, enhancing market liquidity [24].