演员已就位，美联储大戏马上开战

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, which add uncertainty to the upcoming interest rate decision, highlighting the political dynamics affecting the central bank's independence [1][3][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Their Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision preventing Trump from removing Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3]. - The Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, which is expected to strengthen the dovish camp within the FOMC [3][9]. - Cook's position is uncertain due to ongoing legal issues, which have become a focal point in the tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - The market generally anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but the addition of two contrasting voting members complicates the prediction [4][12]. - Analysts suggest a rare "four-way split" voting scenario could emerge, leading to significant confusion in policy signals from the FOMC [5][13]. - The potential voting factions include a dovish camp supporting a 50 basis point cut, a moderate camp favoring a 25 basis point cut, a group advocating for no change, and Cook possibly voting for a 25 basis point increase [13].