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高盛上调中芯国际H股目标价15% 预计国内需求将支撑产量和平均售价
硬AI·2025-09-16 06:52

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs raised the target price for SMIC's H-shares by 15% to HKD 73.1, driven by optimism regarding China's IC design demand and AI trends, which are expected to strongly support SMIC's production and average selling prices [2][3] Group 1: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs maintained its buy rating on SMIC while adjusting revenue and earnings per share forecasts for 2028 and 2029, with EPS estimates increased by 3% and 7%, and revenue forecasts raised by 0.4% and 2% respectively [2][3] - The revenue guidance for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter, which could act as a short-term catalyst for the stock price [5][6] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The long-term growth of SMIC is anticipated to be stronger due to the increasing demand from domestic IC design companies and the rapid growth of AI applications, which will support production capacity and average selling prices [3][5] - The demand for high-performance chips is expected to rise as more AI-related applications are implemented, enhancing the capacity utilization and pricing power of foundry manufacturers [5][6] Group 3: Operational Performance - SMIC demonstrated robust financial performance, with a 22.0% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 4.456 billion in the first half of 2025, a gross margin improvement to 21.4%, and a net margin of 10.5% [5][6] - The revenue from wafer foundry services grew by 24.6% year-on-year to USD 4.229 billion, attributed to increased wafer sales, higher average selling prices, and changes in product mix [5][6] Group 4: Capacity Expansion and Structural Optimization - SMIC is actively expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure, adding nearly 20,000 pieces of 12-inch standard logic monthly capacity in the first half of the year [6] - The revenue structure shows significant contributions from consumer electronics, smartphones, and industrial and automotive applications, with the latter's share increasing from 7.7% to 10.1% year-on-year [6]