ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT(SZ:300308) 硬AI·2025-09-16 06:52Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the ramp-up of 1.6T pluggable optical modules will exceed market expectations, driven by the increasing bandwidth demand from AI systems and ASIC solutions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Revenue Forecast - Morgan Stanley has raised the revenue forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang to 70.8 billion yuan for 2026 and 88.6 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting an 18% and 17% increase respectively [6][7]. - The demand potential for 1.6T pluggable optical modules may still be underestimated, with a significant upward potential in shipment volumes from 2026 to 2027 [3][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the strong ongoing demand for 800G and the clear upgrade path to 1.6T due to the exponential growth in network bandwidth requirements driven by AI systems [6][8]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Metrics - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang have been increased to 19.8 billion yuan for 2026 and 23.9 billion yuan for 2027, with earnings per share estimates raised to 17.8 yuan for 2026 [7][8]. - The compound annual growth rate for sales and profits from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 55% and 66% respectively, indicating strong financial performance [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Technology Transition - Concerns regarding the disruptive impact of next-generation technology, such as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), are deemed unfounded in the short term, with large-scale application expected only after 2027 [4][11]. - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to remain a key player even after the potential transition to next-generation technologies, thanks to its expertise in optical and component integration and strong relationships with leading customers [12][13]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongji Xuchuang, raising the target price from 366 yuan to 430 yuan based on a 20x one-year forward P/E ratio [9]. - The stock currently corresponds to a 19x P/E ratio for 2027, indicating room for valuation improvement compared to peers trading at 25-30x [9].