机构警告：下行周期将至！

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing a potential cyclical downturn despite the current AI-driven boom, as indicated by Morningstar's analysis, which suggests that the strong demand for AI-related sales may be reaching its peak [2][3]. Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - The typical semiconductor cycle lasts about four years, and the current upcycle has been extended due to AI demand [2]. - Semiconductor billing revenue growth, a reliable indicator of industry health, has begun to slow, signaling that the industry may be nearing its peak [2]. - Weak sales in smartphones and consumer electronics are dragging down demand for non-AI chips [2]. Group 2: AI Investment and Market Sentiment - AI spending is expected to peak in 2025, with potential risks of a slowdown in 2026 due to macroeconomic challenges and weak consumer demand [2]. - Despite record mentions of AI in earnings calls by S&P 500 companies, the proportion of companies quantifying AI's impact on profits remains limited [3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - TSMC is noted for its technological leadership and significant investments in the U.S., providing it with some risk buffer against industry-wide cyclical fluctuations [3]. - Even leading companies like TSMC cannot completely escape the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry [3].