国泰海通｜策略：宽松在望：美联储降息预期持续强化

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight position in A-shares, a neutral position in US Treasuries and gold, and an underweight position in the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: A-Shares - The company is highly optimistic about A-shares due to improved economic outlook, strong government support for capital markets, stable market liquidity, improving risk appetite, and solid micro trading structures [1]. - Factors supporting the performance of Chinese assets include accelerated transformation, increased economic visibility, lower opportunity costs in the stock market, and capital market reforms, which are expected to drive a "transformation bull" market [1]. Group 2: US Treasuries - The company maintains a neutral stance on US Treasuries, as the market adjusts to expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy due to slight cooling in the US labor market and economic conditions [2]. - The tactical allocation in US Treasuries is seen as having a moderate risk-return profile and tactical value [2]. Group 3: Gold - The company holds a neutral position on gold, suggesting that the recent geopolitical tensions and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy will lower the holding costs of gold, thus supporting its price [2]. - Gold is viewed as having a moderate risk-return profile and tactical allocation value [2]. Group 4: US Dollar - The company maintains an underweight position in the US dollar, as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to weaken the dollar's performance relative to other currencies [2]. - The rising inflation expectations further diminish the dollar's allocation value, leading to a perception of low risk-return profile for the dollar [2].