Group 1: Changes in New Growth Momentum - Since 2023, the high-tech manufacturing industry has seen an upward trend, with growth momentum shifting from external demand to internal demand [2][3] - The EPMI index has shown a greater rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating an improvement in the economic climate for emerging industries [2][10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing has significantly increased in 2023, contributing to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023 [2][10] Group 2: Profitability Performance of New Growth Momentum - The profit growth of the high-tech manufacturing sector is more resilient than that of other industries, primarily due to a higher profit margin, which exceeds that of other manufacturing sectors by approximately 2 percentage points [4][33] - Since 2019, profit growth in high-tech manufacturing has consistently outpaced that of other manufacturing sectors, with profit shares in electrical machinery and computer communications increasing by 3.8 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, by July 2025 [4][33] - The profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5% in July 2025, while other industries lagged at 4.3% [4][33] Group 3: Factors Influencing Profitability - High-tech manufacturing maintains a cost rate approximately 5 percentage points lower than other manufacturing sectors, supporting its relatively high profit margins [4][43] - The cost rate for high-tech manufacturing has remained around 90%, compared to 94.5% for other manufacturing sectors, contributing to better profit performance [4][43] - Increased investment in innovation has provided high-tech manufacturing with stronger pricing power, helping to sustain profit margin growth [5][56] Group 4: Potential Impacts of Accelerated New Growth Momentum - The improvement in profitability within high-tech manufacturing is expected to directly impact the labor market, leading to increased employment in this sector [6][67] - Employment growth in high-tech manufacturing is projected to rebound to 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with negative growth in other manufacturing sectors [6][67] - Higher wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to further boost household income, with average annual salary growth in electrical machinery and computer communications projected at 14.9% and 12%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [8][72]
热点思考|新动能的“新变化”？ (申万宏观·赵伟团队）
申万宏源宏观·2025-09-16 11:58