热点思考 | 金价，新高之后的“隐忧”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, with significant contributions from European and American investors, while Asian investors have shown a contrasting trend in their gold investments [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Gold Price Surge - The main driver for the recent increase in gold prices is the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in real interest rates. Gold prices rose from $3,315.7 per ounce on August 20 to $3,643.1 per ounce by September 12, marking a significant increase [3][4]. - Factors contributing to the heightened rate cut expectations include lower-than-expected inflation pressures in the US, weak employment data, and interventions by Trump regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [3][22]. Group 2: Divergence in Investor Behavior - The increase in gold prices has been predominantly fueled by European and American investors, with the US market seeing a 7.7% increase in gold prices since August 20, while Asian markets have only seen a 1.3% increase [4][25]. - From August onwards, European and American investors increased their gold ETF holdings by 37.1 tons and 20.8 tons, respectively, while Asian investors reduced their holdings by 4.8 tons [4][25]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The ability of gold prices to continue breaking new highs will depend on the Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Current market expectations suggest three consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][4]. - The recent strong performance of the A-share market and the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi have suppressed domestic demand for gold among Chinese investors [4][55].