地缘经济论 | 第一章 在依赖中制衡：从地缘政治到地缘经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of international competition from traditional geopolitical dynamics to geoeconomic strategies, emphasizing the strategic use of economic tools to influence global relations and decision-making among nations [2][3]. Group 1: Transition from Globalization to Geoeconomic Competition - The rise of geoeconomics reflects a shift where economic tools are increasingly used to achieve national strategic goals, particularly evident in U.S. policies under the "America First" framework [4][6]. - Economic sanctions and trade barriers have become more prevalent, with a notable increase in their use since 2017, surpassing traditional military interventions [4][6]. - Geoeconomics provides a new analytical perspective that integrates international relations and economics, focusing on the strategic use of economic tools [3][6]. Group 2: Asymmetric Dependence in Economic Globalization - The article highlights that globalization has led to unprecedented economic interdependence among nations, characterized by asymmetrical dependencies that create opportunities for economic competition [7][10]. - The U.S. maintains a dominant position in the global financial system, leveraging its control over the dollar to influence international economic relations [10][12]. - Emerging economies, particularly China, are increasingly becoming critical players in global supply chains, reducing their dependency on traditional economic powers [18][19]. Group 3: Characteristics of Geoeconomic Competition - Geoeconomic competition is likely to become a new norm due to the changing nature of international conflicts, where economic tools are preferred over military options [19][20]. - Economic measures are flexible and controllable, allowing governments to adjust their strategies without escalating conflicts unnecessarily [19][20]. - The effectiveness of geoeconomic tools is contingent upon the nature of the issues at stake and the ability of nations to adapt to changing dependencies [20][21]. Group 4: Economic Tools and Their Classification - Economic tools in geoeconomic competition can be categorized based on strategic intent (offensive vs. defensive) and intervention methods (inducement vs. sanctions) [22][23]. - The classification framework helps in understanding how nations utilize economic resources to influence others' behaviors or capabilities [22][23]. Group 5: Sources of Economic Power - Economic power is derived from a nation's resource endowment and its control over key nodes in the global economic network [27][30]. - A country's ability to exert economic pressure is fundamentally linked to its economic endowment, including natural resources, capital, and technological capabilities [28][30]. - Control over critical nodes in global supply chains enhances a nation's influence, allowing it to leverage its economic advantages effectively [30][31]. Group 6: Quantitative Analysis of Geoeconomic Power - The article proposes a framework for quantifying economic power based on input-output networks, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [32][33]. - Key industries and their roles in the global economy are analyzed to identify critical nodes that hold significant leverage in geoeconomic competition [33][36]. - The evolution of supply and demand networks from 2000 to 2023 illustrates shifts in economic power dynamics among major economies, particularly the rise of China as a regional center [44][47].