美联储利率决议前美元指数逼近三年低点，市场静待降息路径指引

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. dollar and the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts as economic indicators show signs of weakness [2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is nearing its lowest level since March 2022, having declined for three consecutive days by 0.1% [2][5]. - Major currencies such as the euro and yen are strengthening against the dollar as traders await the Federal Reserve's announcement and assess the details of potential interest rate cuts for the year [2][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is holding a two-day monetary policy meeting, with signs of a weakening labor market, including a slowdown in job growth and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [4]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [4]. - The release of the Fed's dot plot will be closely watched, as it reflects policymakers' forecasts for future monetary policy easing [4]. Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - Hedge funds have reportedly increased their options positions, betting on further weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, and Australian dollar in the coming months [8]. - The European Central Bank has no plans for further rate cuts, which has driven the euro to a four-year high against the dollar, narrowing the interest rate gap between the U.S. and Europe [8].