市场今晚将聚焦鲍威尔议息会议后的讲话，美股美债黄金走势如何？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with market reactions closely tied to Chairman Powell's subsequent statements, which could influence stock, bond, and gold markets positively if dovish remarks are made [1][2][4]. Group 1: Immediate Market Reactions - The market has already priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, leading to three possible outcomes: no change, a 25 basis point cut, or a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [3]. - If the Fed maintains rates, it could lead to market confusion due to a breakdown in communication, which has historically been a strength of the Fed [3]. - A 25 basis point cut with neutral comments from Powell may not provide upward momentum for markets, as the positive impact has already been absorbed [3][6]. Group 2: Longer-Term Market Outlook - Over a longer timeframe, if the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points and the language is unremarkable, bond performance may be lackluster, while equities could gradually improve due to increased liquidity and lower corporate costs [6]. - The future performance of the U.S. economy will be critical; if the rate cut leads to economic stabilization, the Fed's future cuts may be limited. Conversely, if the economy continues to decline, more aggressive cuts may be necessary [7]. - Inflation trends, particularly influenced by tariffs, will also affect the Fed's rate decisions and market reactions [7]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices are expected to be in an upward cycle due to four main factors: the weakening dollar, declining U.S. real interest rates, reduced market risk appetite, and increased central bank purchases of gold [9][10][11]. - A weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, as gold is dollar-denominated [10]. - If the Fed continues to lower rates while inflation remains stable, real interest rates will decline, further supporting gold prices [10]. - Geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion will increase demand for gold, pushing prices higher [10]. - Central banks, including China's, are actively increasing gold reserves, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [11].