今晚，全球屏息：美联储重启降息……

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is highly anticipated, with a consensus among analysts that a 25 basis point rate cut is likely, marking the first cut since December of the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - A significant majority of analysts (105 out of 107) expect a 25 basis point cut, while only 2 predict a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The meeting is seen as potentially signaling the start of a new easing cycle, with attention on whether the FOMC statement will reflect increased risks in the labor market [3][7]. - The updated dot plot will indicate officials' expectations for the number of rate cuts this year, with speculation on whether it will remain at two or increase to three [3][8]. Group 2: Political Context and Voting Dynamics - The current political climate is described as unusual, leading to a potentially unprecedented voting split within the FOMC [3][4]. - The voting dynamics may include factions advocating for a significant cut (50 basis points), a moderate cut (25 basis points), or maintaining the current rate [4][5][6]. - Political pressures, including interventions from the Trump administration, have added complexity to the voting process, potentially influencing individual members' positions [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Historical Performance - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically show positive returns around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks averaging a 5% increase over 50 days post-cut [13]. - Market reactions to the rate decision are expected to vary, with a 25 basis point cut likely to boost the S&P 500 by 0.5% to 1% [12]. - The report outlines potential market movements under different scenarios, indicating that a dovish cut could lead to a 0.5% to 1% increase in the S&P 500, while a hawkish stance could result in declines [12][13]. Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs projects three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for further cuts in 2026 [10]. - The median dot plot is expected to show a total of two cuts in 2025, with the possibility of additional cuts if the labor market deteriorates more than anticipated [10][11]. - The focus will be on how the Fed balances employment concerns against inflation, with implications for future monetary policy direction [11][12].