Palantir 的橡皮筋被拉长了，继续坚持可能会很痛苦

Core Viewpoint - Palantir has shown strong growth momentum, with a 71% increase in U.S. commercial business and a 45% increase in U.S. government business, leading to an upward revision of the 2025 revenue forecast to $3.9 billion, representing a 36% year-over-year growth [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Following the strong earnings report, Palantir's stock price rose from $158 to $187 over five trading days, an increase of nearly 18% [2]. - After reaching a peak of $190, the stock faced resistance and subsequently declined back to around $158, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment [4]. - As of now, Palantir's stock is down 9.4% from its recent highs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics with short sellers gaining control [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The stock is currently at a critical level, with a need for a convincing breakout above the $169-$170 range to absorb previous selling pressure and push prices higher [5]. - A breakthrough of the $187 resistance level, which is significant due to previous sell-offs, could indicate a bullish trend if supported by strong trading volume [5][6]. - However, the likelihood of surpassing the $187 mark is low, as past attempts to break this level resulted in sharp declines [6]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Palantir's market capitalization stands at $407 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) net profit of only $773 million, leading to a staggering price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 570 [7]. - To justify its current valuation, Palantir would need to achieve a net profit of around $10 billion, which would require a 13-fold increase in earnings, a scenario viewed as highly optimistic [9]. - Even with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40%, reaching the $10 billion profit mark could take until 2031, assuming perfect execution and no competitive disruptions [9][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If Palantir's stock price breaks above the 52-week high of $187, it could potentially rise to $240, representing a 42% upside for long-term holders [13]. - However, the risks associated with pursuing this potential upside are significant, especially given the current valuation pressures and market sentiment [14].