研客专栏 | 中美周期共振or背离？

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the economic cycle in the U.S. from June 2004 to July 2025 based on the Pring cycle classification, indicating that leading indicators are bottoming out and recovering, while coincident indicators are slightly weakening, and lagging indicators remain resilient. Future attention should be on the status of coincident indicators to determine the economic cycle's progression [4][41]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Cycle Analysis - The U.S. economic cycle is divided into six stages based on leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, with specific characteristics for each stage [7][11]. - As of July 2025, if the loose monetary policy improves the fundamentals and coincident indicators rise, the economy may enter the second or third stage of recovery; otherwise, it may face stagflation risks [4][16]. - The asset rotation pattern shows that during the recovery phase, equities outperform commodities, while in the stagflation phase, commodities exhibit anti-inflation advantages [4][17]. Group 2: Comparison of U.S. and China Economic Cycles - Both the U.S. and China are currently in a phase where leading indicators are rising, but the U.S. faces weakening coincident indicators, while China is in a low-level bottoming process [5][21]. - If leading indicators rise significantly in both countries, it could lead to a synchronized recovery phase; otherwise, the U.S. may enter stagflation, and China may remain in a weak economic state [5][22]. - The sensitivity of domestic assets to U.S. indicators is highlighted, with commodities responding more to U.S. coincident indicators, while the Shanghai Composite Index is more sensitive to domestic indicators [6][42]. Group 3: Asset Performance and Strategies - The article outlines that during different stages of the economic cycle, various asset classes perform differently, with equities leading during recovery and commodities performing well during stagflation [4][17]. - Quantitative CTA strategies perform best during periods of synchronized rising leading indicators, suggesting a potential increase in returns and the necessity for such strategies in the current market environment [6][43]. - The performance of major asset classes from June 2004 to July 2025 is summarized, showing varying returns across different economic phases [20][41].