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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to influence global markets significantly [2][3][34] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's decisions impact not only the U.S. market but also global assets including U.S. stocks, bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities like gold [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the interest rate cut: no cut, a 25 basis point cut, and a 50 basis point cut, detailing the expected market reactions for each scenario [7][9][10] - In the case of a 25 basis point cut, it is viewed as beneficial for risk assets, while a 50 basis point cut could raise concerns about a potential recession, depending on market confidence in the U.S. economy [9][34] - Historical data shows that during previous significant rate cuts, equity markets generally experienced declines, while fixed income assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold tended to perform well [29][30][31] Group 3 - The article provides a summary of past Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, highlighting the economic conditions and market responses during those periods, indicating a consistent pattern of equity declines amid aggressive rate cuts [14][21][29] - It notes that during the 2001-2003 and 2007-2008 rate cut cycles, equity markets faced significant downturns, while fixed income and gold assets showed resilience [18][22][28] - The analysis suggests that the current market sentiment remains optimistic about the U.S. economy, with a 25 basis point cut being the most likely outcome, which could support risk assets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [34]