降息落地！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, with potential for two more cuts this year, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions [1][4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines, indicating investor uncertainty about future economic trends [8][9]. - The Dow Jones closed at 46,018.32, up 260.42 points (+0.57%), while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,600.35, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.3% to 22,261.33 [2][8]. Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11-1 vote, with only Stephen Miran opposing the decision, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2][5]. - The internal division within the Fed was less than market expectations, indicating a dominant dovish stance among committee members [2][5]. Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Fed's updated dot plot indicates that 10 out of 19 members expect two more rate cuts this year, while one member predicts a total cut of 125 basis points, reflecting a cautious outlook on economic conditions [5]. - The Fed slightly raised its economic growth forecast for the year but maintained its outlook on inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [5][6]. Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Despite high interest rates, consumer spending remains resilient, with retail sales and personal consumption expenditures exceeding expectations, suggesting that household spending power has not been fully suppressed [6][9]. - The Fed emphasized the need to remain vigilant about inflation pressures, indicating that the rate cut should not be interpreted as a signal for aggressive easing [6][9]. Future Rate Projections - The dot plot suggests only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is significantly lower than market expectations of two to three cuts, indicating a cautious approach even in the face of potential economic downturns [5][9]. - The Fed's long-term neutral rate median is set at 3%, with some members suggesting it should be lower, reflecting a careful stance on future monetary policy [5].