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中金:从液到固,设备先行——固态电池工艺革新驱动价值重估
中金点睛·2025-09-17 23:49

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is entering a critical phase of commercialization, with significant growth potential in equipment demand and technological advancements expected by 2030 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Potential - The incremental market space for solid-state battery equipment is projected to reach 2.5 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 122%, potentially reaching 27.3 billion yuan by 2030 [2][4]. - The value proportion of equipment in the front and mid-stages is expected to rise to 75%-80%, with new processes like dry electrode and isostatic pressing being key contributors to this growth [2][4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Solid-state batteries offer advantages such as high safety, energy density, and low-temperature performance compared to traditional lithium batteries, with theoretical energy densities exceeding 500 Wh/kg [6][7]. - The transition from liquid to solid electrolytes is marked by the introduction of new manufacturing processes, including dry mixing and isostatic pressing, which enhance the performance and safety of batteries [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Major battery manufacturers, including CATL, BYD, and LGES, are accelerating their solid-state battery development, with many aiming for small-scale production by 2027 [4][10]. - The industry is characterized by a multi-route approach to technology, with sulfide-based solid-state batteries currently leading due to their high ionic conductivity [15][17]. Group 4: Policy Support - The Chinese government has been progressively enhancing policies to support the solid-state battery industry, focusing on standardization and performance specifications from 2022 to 2025 [8][9]. - Key policies include the establishment of performance requirements for solid-state batteries, which will guide the industry's development and ensure safety and efficiency [9][10]. Group 5: Application Scenarios - Solid-state batteries are expected to find applications in electric vehicles, eVTOLs, and humanoid robots, where high energy density and safety are critical [23][25]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with eVTOLs requiring batteries that meet stringent performance criteria, making solid-state batteries a suitable choice [23][25].