美联储如期降息-20250918

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales for August showed a strong performance with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [2][16]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, while core inflation remains at 3.1% [2][16]. - China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts this year and one in the next year, reflecting a relatively hawkish policy path [1][4]. - The recent rate cut has led to increased volatility in gold and silver prices, with market participants reacting to the Fed's decisions and economic indicators [2][16]. - The market is observing the impact of trade negotiations and the ongoing concerns regarding inflation from tariffs, which are influencing gold prices positively in the long term [2][17]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, prices have decreased by 0.84%, with tight supply conditions for concentrates and high growth in smelting output [3][18]. - The steel market is experiencing stable profitability, with iron and steel production recovering, while steel inventories are accumulating [22][23]. - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with soybean planting area increased but production estimates lowered, leading to a neutral to bearish outlook for soybean prices [25]. Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to be officially released next year [7]. - The National Cybersecurity Administration emphasizes the need for leading enterprises to focus on key technology breakthroughs, particularly in chip development [5]. Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The crude oil market is adjusting production levels in response to stable global economic growth and favorable market fundamentals [11]. - The lithium carbonate supply is expected to see a slight increase, while demand for ternary materials is projected to decline, indicating potential price pressures in the lithium market [20]. - The rubber market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations due to improved supply conditions and seasonal demand increases [13].