芯片，何时能复苏？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market growth is driven by average selling prices (ASP) rather than shipment volumes, indicating that a recovery can only be confirmed when shipment volumes increase [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 16% this year, reaching $732 billion, with a worst-case scenario of 15% growth and a best-case scenario of 19% [2] - By 2026, the market is expected to grow by 12%, reaching $813 billion, with a worst-case growth of 6% and a best-case growth of 18% [2] - There is a dichotomy in the market, with AI data centers thriving while non-AI markets remain weak [2][3] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Pricing - Capital expenditure as a percentage of sales remains high at approximately 15%, compared to a long-term trend of 11% [3] - Average selling prices have stabilized at $1.76 in July after hitting a low of $1.11 in June 2022 [3] - The enthusiasm for compound semiconductors is waning, with significant investments in GaN wafer fabs in China surpassing those in SiC [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government is considering imposing tariffs on semiconductors, potentially exceeding 25%, which adds uncertainty to the global semiconductor industry [5][6] - The Trump administration's policies have created a climate of uncertainty, affecting not only U.S. companies but also allies like South Korea and Japan [5][6] - The U.S. government is leveraging its position to pressure companies like Intel to increase investments while simultaneously restricting imports of semiconductor equipment to China [6][7] Group 4: Industry Sentiment - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a downturn, with a significant drop in the Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for the electronics and telecommunications sector [5] - Experts emphasize the need for calm and accurate judgment in the face of market volatility and government policies [8]