对宽松的认识还不够——9月美联储议息会议解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, indicating a shift in the balance of risks due to a slowing labor market and rising unemployment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is transitioning towards an oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since the end of 2021, driven by returning job seekers [3][6][9]. - Job gains have slowed, and the labor market is no longer considered stable, with the Federal Reserve acknowledging a shift in employment conditions [5][6]. - Wage growth is decelerating, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power [3][6]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with service inflation stabilizing due to housing, while tariff costs are gradually reflecting in goods inflation, albeit at a mild rate [3][6][9]. - The Federal Reserve has noted that inflation remains elevated, with expectations for PCE inflation adjusted upwards to 2.6% for 2026 [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economic activity is moderating, with the Federal Reserve raising its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8% [8]. - Consumer spending is reported to be higher than expected, although uncertainty and tariffs are impacting consumption decisions [8]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts remains, with expectations of two more cuts within the year as the labor market weakens and inflation risks persist [9].