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热点思考 | 金价,新高之后的“隐忧”?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索·2025-09-18 04:03

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is primarily driven by Western investors, while Asian investors have not significantly participated in this rally. The divergence in investment behavior among different regions may impact future gold price movements [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent Gold Price Surge - The main driver for the recent increase in gold prices is the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in real interest rates. Gold prices rose from $3,315.7 per ounce on August 20 to $3,643.1 per ounce by September 12, marking a significant increase [3][4]. - Factors contributing to the heightened expectations for rate cuts include lower-than-expected inflation pressures, weak employment data, and President Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence. For instance, the non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 [3][22]. Group 2: Asian Market Dynamics - The lack of significant price increase in the Asian market can be attributed to the strong performance of the A-share market, which has attracted investment funds away from gold. Since August 20, gold prices have increased by 7.7% during the U.S. trading hours, while Asian investors have reduced their holdings by 4.8 tons [4][25]. - The rapid appreciation of the Chinese yuan has also impacted domestic demand for gold, as it reduces the hedging value of gold against currency fluctuations. Since June, the yuan has appreciated by 1.01%, leading to a decline in gold's appeal as a hedging tool [4][55]. Group 3: Future Gold Price Outlook - The sustainability of gold price increases will depend on the Federal Reserve's potential for further rate cuts and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Current market expectations suggest that the Fed may implement three consecutive rate cuts, which may already be priced in [5][55]. - The relationship between gold and stock market performance indicates a "see-saw effect," where strong stock market performance can lead to reduced gold demand. The recent bullish sentiment in the A-share market may continue to suppress domestic gold demand [5][55].