美国居民部门购买力的消长与中美贸易战的互动机制｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the purchasing power of the U.S. resident sector, highlighting the ineffective execution of these policies and suggesting that China should focus on technological breakthroughs and the internationalization of the RMB to reduce reliance on the dollar and alleviate the "Triffin dilemma" affecting the global economy [1]. Group 1: Evolution of U.S. Resident Sector Purchasing Power - The purchasing power of the U.S. resident sector has evolved from continuous expansion during globalization to structural decline due to factors such as slowing natural growth rates, debt expansion, and reshaping global demand [3]. - The core demand of the U.S. resident sector is to enhance purchasing power, which has been a driving force behind the trade war, leading to a mismatch between high pricing in the high-consumption market and declining purchasing power [3]. Group 2: Globalization and Purchasing Power Expansion - In the early stages of globalization, the U.S. resident sector benefited from low-priced imports due to China's labor cost advantages, which allowed multinational manufacturers to lower production costs and prices [6]. - The dollar's hegemony provided benefits to the U.S. resident sector by keeping interest rates low, which facilitated debt expansion and maintained low inflation, thus supporting purchasing power [7]. Group 3: Decline of Purchasing Power in Later Stages of Globalization - Post-2008, the U.S. economy's growth rate slowed, leading to a decline in corporate profits and further stagnation in wage growth for the U.S. resident sector [9]. - China's rise and shift from an export-driven economy to one driven by investment and consumption have increased competition for profit shares, thereby reducing the purchasing power subsidy previously enjoyed by the U.S. resident sector [9]. - The diversification of global central bank reserves has reduced the rigid reliance on the dollar, leading to increased volatility in the dollar's value and diminishing the purchasing power of U.S. residents when exchanging currencies [9]. Group 4: Debt Issues and Purchasing Power - The article emphasizes the importance of the non-Ponzi condition in discussing debt, noting that debt growth must not exceed the natural return rate of the economy [10]. - Post-2008, the lack of technological advancement and persistent low-interest rates have raised concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt, leading to cuts in welfare programs that directly impact resident purchasing power [10].