美联储降息“走钢丝”：25基点太少，50基点太多

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points marks a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment, reflecting growing concerns about job market slowdowns [4][7][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since December 2024, reducing rates by 25 basis points [4]. - Newly appointed board member Stephen I. Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, representing a significant political stance [4][16]. - The Fed's statement indicated a clear shift in policy focus, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment risks [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened employment risks, forecasting two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December, with further cuts in 2026 if unemployment rises unexpectedly [5][15]. - The Fed's "dot plot" suggests a median expectation of a total rate reduction of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, indicating a dovish shift among committee members [7][14]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose, but later retreated as concerns about economic fundamentals resurfaced [22][24]. - Analysts express mixed views on market reactions, with some warning of potential bubbles and others suggesting that gradual rate cuts may maintain market confidence [23][24]. Group 4: Inflation and Employment Dynamics - The Fed's inflation forecasts have been adjusted, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to remain at 2.6% in 2026, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [10][11]. - Employment indicators show signs of cooling, with job vacancies decreasing and unemployment rates slightly rising, prompting the Fed's decision to lower rates [11][12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed's internal divisions on future rate cuts reflect a complex economic outlook, with varying predictions among officials regarding the number and magnitude of future cuts [18][19]. - The market anticipates continued pressure on the dollar and a favorable outlook for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [24][25].