鲍威尔的最后一搏？新美联储通讯社：降息是权衡“政治”和“经济”压力后的艰难选择

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's decision to cut interest rates, despite the absence of clear recession signals, represents a high-risk policy gamble aimed at demonstrating the Fed's independence and fulfilling its dual mandate [2][9]. Economic Context - Powell faces unprecedented political opposition and economic uncertainty as his term nears its end, making current policy decisions more complex and risky than ever before [2][3]. - The decision to lower rates is largely influenced by significant slowdowns in the labor market, with average job growth for August revised down from 150,000 to 29,000, indicating substantial underlying weakness [4]. Political Pressure - The Fed is navigating extraordinary challenges to its traditional independence while addressing issues like slowing growth and persistent inflation, complicating policy decisions [3][6]. - Powell has managed to maintain consensus within the Fed despite differing views on the economic outlook and significant political pressure [6][8]. Future Outlook - The Fed's interest rate predictions reveal potential for ongoing contentious debates, with some members believing no further rate cuts are necessary this year, while others advocate for additional cuts [8]. - Powell acknowledges the dual risks of labor market weakness and stubborn inflation, indicating that there are no risk-free paths forward [8]. Historical Context - The article outlines three potential outcomes of Powell's policy gamble, referencing historical precedents where early rate cuts either led to successful economic soft landings or contributed to prolonged inflationary pressures [11][12]. - Past instances of rate cuts in 1990, 2001, and 2007 failed to prevent recessions, highlighting the limitations of monetary policy [12].