【招银研究|海外宏观】降息如期重启，未来分歧加剧——美联储议息会议点评（2025年9月）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00-4.25% reflects a preventive approach to manage risks in the economy, highlighting concerns over the labor market while maintaining a cautious stance on future economic conditions [1][4]. Economic Analysis - The current economic landscape shows a coexistence of strong economic growth and weak employment, with GDP growth forecasted to improve slightly by 0.2 percentage points compared to previous predictions, while unemployment rates are expected to rise [4]. - Powell described a "peculiar balance" in the labor market, where reduced labor supply due to immigration policies contrasts with weakened demand due to economic slowdown, contributing to the decision for the rate cut [5]. Political Influence - Political factors are increasingly impacting the Federal Reserve's independence, as evidenced by attempts from the Trump administration to influence Fed appointments, which poses a potential threat to its credibility and policy effectiveness [6]. Interest Rate Policy - There is significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with the median forecast for rate cuts increasing from two to three times this year, indicating a growing split in opinions on monetary policy direction [7]. - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in future rate projections for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a cautious approach to economic data dependency [7]. Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting trajectory, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December, aiming to reach a neutral rate of 3.25%-3.50% next year [8]. - The yield curve is anticipated to steepen due to market expectations of rate cuts and concerns over the Fed's independence, with potential for further steepening of 15-20 basis points [8]. Market Implications - Gold remains a favorable investment as central bank buying trends continue, and the renewed rate-cutting cycle supports its price, although investors are advised to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy due to high valuations [9]. - U.S. equities are expected to continue a moderate upward trend, driven by strong corporate earnings rather than valuation increases, with a balanced investment strategy recommended [9].