行业透视 | 9月市场追踪：沪杭蓉去化率6成以上，津汉热盘集中入市

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in September continues to show high volatility, driven by the concentration of hot properties in core cities and enhanced marketing efforts during the strong sales period, leading to a year-on-year increase in short-term project sales rates [1][31]. Market Performance - In the first half of September, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 key cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, with a total area of 159.3 million square meters sold [4][5]. - The average sales rate for projects in these cities was 38%, a slight decrease of 4 percentage points from August 2025 but an increase of 11 percentage points compared to September 2024 [5]. City Classification - Cities are categorized into three types based on their market performance: 1. Core First and Second Tier Cities: Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have seen project sales rates significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu performing better than the same period last year [7][10]. 2. Weak Recovery Cities: Cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin are experiencing a low recovery, with increased visitor and subscription rates due to the launch of hot properties [8][14]. 3. Cities with Declining Demand: Cities like Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Nanjing are facing a decline in subscription volumes, leading to a drop in customer conversion rates and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [8][23]. Specific City Insights - Beijing: The sales rate dropped to 6% due to limited new launches, a decrease of 16 percentage points from August and 18 percentage points from September 2024 [10][11]. - Shanghai: The sales rate improved by 4 percentage points from August to 57%, and by 12 percentage points compared to September 2024 [11]. - Guangzhou: The market showed signs of recovery with increased visitor and subscription rates in the second week of September, leading to a rise in customer conversion rates [14][18]. - Wuhan: The market heat increased due to new launches, with a sales rate of 60% in early September, up 26 percentage points from July [21][20]. - Xi'an: The market faced a bottleneck with a drop in customer conversion rates to 2.25%, the lowest in nearly a year [23]. Overall Market Outlook - The September market is characterized by high volatility, with core cities benefiting from the concentration of desirable properties and strong marketing efforts, while other cities show varied recovery potential [31].