降息靴子落地，但风险却开始出现了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and aligning with market expectations [1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the market reacted quickly with the dollar index dropping to 96.4 and offshore RMB briefly surpassing 7.09 against the dollar, while U.S. stocks initially rose before closing slightly down [1] - The overall market response was muted, indicating that the capital markets had already priced in the 25 basis point cut [1] A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index and A-shares initially rising before reversing to close down 1.13% [1] - Two main reasons for this volatility were identified: 1. Certain sectors, particularly technology, had already priced in the benefits of the rate cut prior to the announcement, leading to profit-taking [1][4] 2. The "Wang Wang Team" exerted precise control over the market, particularly affecting banks, brokerages, and financial sectors [1][4] Future Rate Cuts and Market Outlook - The focus now shifts to potential future rate cuts in October and December, with the most significant information being the Fed's dot plot, which reflects the committee's outlook on future rate changes [6][10] - The dot plot indicated that a majority of Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year, with the most conservative approach being a gradual reduction of 25 basis points at a time [7][8] Long-term Trends - A sustained period of rate cuts is expected to release global liquidity, potentially leading to a decline in the dollar's asset advantage and an upward trend for non-dollar assets [11] - However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to various factors, including rate cut timing and geopolitical events [11] Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests that while long-term bullish trends are anticipated, short-term volatility may present buying opportunities, provided that the right assets are selected and risks are managed [11]