Uber：短短五年从 20 美元涨至 100 美元，下一站是 150 美元

Core Viewpoint - Uber has transformed from a high-growth, cash-burning company into a free cash flow machine, benefiting from its market leadership, solid customer base, and extensive driver network [1]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Uber reported an operating profit of $1.5 billion and generated $8.5 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months [2]. - The management's confidence in strong free cash flow generation is reflected in a new $20 billion stock buyback plan, raising the total authorization to $23 billion [4]. Growth Catalysts - The global ride-sharing industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% by 2030, with Uber maintaining its position as the undisputed global leader [5]. - Uber's advertising business, which has seen significant growth, is considered a secret catalyst for accelerating profit growth in the coming years [5][6]. Advertising Business Potential - Uber has made substantial progress in monetizing its large user base through advertising, reporting $1.5 billion in advertising revenue in Q1, which is only about 3% of total revenue [6]. - The advertising business is capital-light and can immediately enhance profit margins, with expectations for continued investment in the advertising platform [8]. User Engagement and Data Utilization - Uber One has approximately 36 million users, accounting for nearly 40% of total bookings, indicating strong user engagement and potential for advertisers [9]. - Uber's unique real-world data offers advertisers precise targeting opportunities, enhancing the effectiveness of their campaigns [9]. Valuation and Future Projections - Analysts project a more than 30% growth in adjusted EBITDA for Q3, with a conservative estimate of a 20% annual growth rate in the coming years [11]. - By Q2 2027, the incremental EBITDA from the advertising business is expected to reach $2.13 billion, based on a conservative assumption of an 85% EBITDA margin [11]. Market Position and Risks - After accounting for $3.4 billion in net debt, Uber's total equity value is estimated at $320.35 billion, with an implied share value of slightly over $150 [12]. - The company's EV/EBITDA multiple is close to 40, compared to other high-growth companies, indicating a premium valuation [12]. - Regulatory scrutiny in key markets poses a potential threat to Uber's competitive advantages [12].