Datayes·2025-09-18 11:45Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3899.96 before dropping to a low of 3801.00, reflecting market uncertainty influenced by both external and internal factors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Total trading volume reached 8.76 billion shares, with a total turnover of 1.37 trillion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.84% [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64% [18]. External Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to a rebound in the US dollar index above 97, while commodity prices have significantly declined [4]. - Market participants are speculating on the implications of the Fed's rate cut, contributing to the volatility in the A-share market [4]. Internal Factors - There has been notable selling pressure in the brokerage sector, with major firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and others experiencing large sell orders, which has raised concerns about market manipulation [4][6]. - Some analysts suggest that the selling pressure may be linked to institutional investors needing to liquidate positions due to upcoming lock-up expirations or other financial obligations [6]. Sentiment and Valuation - Goldman Sachs has introduced an upgraded retail sentiment indicator for A-shares, currently reading 1.3, indicating consolidation risk but not a trend reversal [8]. - Most valuation metrics suggest that large-cap stocks are not overvalued, with the index's price-to-earnings ratio at median levels, indicating continued attractiveness for liquidity-driven investments [9]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, with a projected upside of 8% and 3% over the next 12 months, respectively, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [13]. Sector Performance - The electronic, communication, and social services sectors showed strong performance, while non-bank financials, metals, and power equipment sectors faced declines [40]. - The net outflow of funds was significant in the non-bank financial sector, with a total outflow of 773.77 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [27]. Key Developments - The Chinese government has reportedly instructed major tech companies to halt purchases of AI chips from Nvidia, which may impact the semiconductor sector [18]. - Huawei's roadmap for its Ascend series chips was released, outlining a phased launch from 2026 to 2028, which could influence the AI and semiconductor markets [18]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently navigating through a phase of volatility influenced by both external economic conditions and internal market dynamics, with significant implications for investment strategies and sector performance [1][4][6][18].