中金缪延亮：对等关税后中美经济与市场比较 ——从美元“不升反贬”看宏观范式转换

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected depreciation of the US dollar following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US government in April 2025, highlighting a shift in global capital market dynamics and the potential fragmentation of the international monetary order [2][3][27]. Market Impact: Global Capital Rebalancing Under Dollar Credit Reevaluation - The US market experienced a rare "triple hit" of stocks, bonds, and currency depreciation, with the dollar weakening contrary to traditional expectations that tariffs would strengthen the domestic currency [3][4]. - The failure of traditional channels through which tariffs typically influence exchange rates is attributed to inflation expectations suppressing short-term interest rates and increasing policy uncertainty undermining the dollar's safe-haven status [4][5]. - The response of global trade partners to the US tariffs, including retaliatory measures, has further diminished the dollar's appreciation potential, as evidenced by the immediate depreciation of the dollar against major currencies following coordinated responses from other nations [6][22]. US Economic Impact: Policy Inefficiency and Long-term Stagflation Risks - The article notes that the tariff policy has led to significant internal contradictions within US economic policy, contributing to rising inflation and reduced consumer confidence [17][18]. - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy has profound implications for both domestic monetary policy effectiveness and international market confidence, potentially transforming supply shocks into demand shocks [18][19]. - Despite short-term support for the US economy from fiscal measures and interest rate cuts, long-term stagflation risks remain due to persistent policy inefficiencies and rising inflation [20][21]. Chinese Market Resilience: Value Reassessment Amid Global Monetary Restructuring - The Chinese stock market has shown strong resilience, with significant gains following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, outperforming other global markets [12][13]. - The article attributes the strength of the Chinese economy to its adaptability in export markets and the competitive pricing of its goods, which have not seen significant declines despite tariff pressures [23][25]. - The Chinese government’s proactive response to US tariffs, including negotiations to lower tariff rates, has effectively mitigated economic tail risks and bolstered market confidence [22][26]. Global Monetary Order Reconstruction - The depreciation of the dollar reflects a reevaluation of the sustainability of the dollar-centric international monetary system, with increasing diversification and fragmentation of global capital flows [27][28]. - The article highlights a shift in investor behavior towards seeking alternatives to the dollar, as evidenced by rising allocations to gold and other currencies, indicating a potential decline in the dollar's dominance [29][31]. - The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary order suggests that China may play a more significant role in the new financial paradigm, as global capital seeks diversified investment opportunities [36].