BABA(US:BABA) 阿尔法工场研究院·2025-09-19 00:05Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's strategy in the instant retail sector is a sophisticated upgrade of Pinduoduo's low-price model, leveraging group synergy to enhance market competitiveness and user engagement [2][18]. Group 1: Strategic Pathway - Alibaba's instant retail strategy follows a "three-part" approach: low-price customer acquisition, trust-building through subsidies, and a focus on fresh produce to create a competitive moat [3][4][6]. - The first step involves attracting customers with low prices, exemplified by Alibaba's "30-minute delivery" and "9.9 yuan free shipping for fresh produce," resulting in a 12% year-on-year revenue increase in H1 2025 and a 25% surge in overall user numbers [4][5]. - The second step focuses on building trust through a 50 billion yuan subsidy fund, significantly increasing the proportion of high-value orders and improving conversion rates by 20% [5][9]. - The third step emphasizes fresh produce and daily necessities, with expectations of an annualized GMV increase of 1 trillion yuan over the next three years, achieving a daily active user repurchase rate of 3.2 times, surpassing competitors [6][15]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape shows that Alibaba's group synergy outperforms individual efforts, with a projected 15% revenue growth in domestic commerce by 2026, significantly above the industry average of 8% [14][18]. - Instant retail has become a new growth engine for Alibaba, with Q2 2025 instant retail revenue accounting for 5.7% of total revenue, despite being a small segment, it is the fastest-growing [11][15]. - Market share for Alibaba has increased from 15% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, surpassing Meituan in the non-takeout instant retail sector [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - Alibaba's ROI from subsidies stands at 1.8:1, indicating a highly efficient investment strategy compared to Meituan's 1.2:1 and JD's 1.0:1 [10][12]. - The company's earnings per share for the fiscal year 2026 are projected to be between $8.00 and $8.50, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth, driven by cloud computing and international e-commerce [18][19]. - If the stock price returns to the five-year PE average, there is a potential 24% upside to $200, and a 41% upside to $229 if it returns to the historical median PE [19].