国泰海通证券研究·2025-09-18 15:09Core Insights - The report focuses on the macroeconomic environment, endowment characteristics, industrial structure of the UAE, and its comparative position in the Middle East, particularly in relation to China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) [1][2] Economic Overview - The UAE has a strategic geographical location and a stable political environment, contributing to its role as a major trade and logistics hub in the Middle East [1] - The UAE's economy is significantly supported by its oil and gas resources, ranking sixth and seventh globally in reserves, respectively. As of Q4 2024, the oil sector accounts for 20% of the UAE's GDP, making it the second-largest economy in the Gulf region and one of the highest per capita GDPs worldwide [2][3] Economic Diversification - Recent years have seen the UAE actively pursuing economic transformation, resulting in a notable increase in the share of non-oil sectors. The service industry has become a significant contributor to economic growth, with domestic demand and private consumption driving this expansion [3] - The UAE has established itself as a key commercial and financial logistics center in the Gulf, with a competitive business environment and rapid development in re-export trade and financial services [3] Demographics and Consumption - The UAE has a favorable demographic structure, with a high percentage of foreign immigrants (88%) and a well-educated workforce, which supports industrial transformation and domestic market expansion [4] - The UAE's consumption patterns reflect a coexistence of high income and inequality, but ongoing urbanization and economic diversification are expected to further expand the non-oil economy and stimulate consumer market growth [4] Trade Relations with China - The UAE is a crucial energy supplier to China and the largest export market in the Middle East. Recent years have seen strengthened trade cooperation, with a growing preference for importing machinery, automobiles, and home goods from China [4] - The energy sector remains a cornerstone of UAE-China relations, with a shift from traditional oil purchases to clean energy collaborations and an expansion into new economic and digital infrastructure projects [4]