国泰海通·洞察价值｜公用事业吴杰团队

Core Insights - The article discusses the electricity market reform and its impact on supply and demand dynamics, predicting that electricity prices in Northern regions will stabilize by 2026, while Southern regions will experience fluctuations [3][6]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The report emphasizes the creation of a power supply and demand model to forecast electricity prices, showcasing its empirical effectiveness [3]. - The author has 17 years of personal cycle research experience, indicating a strong continuity in viewpoints and an ability to identify turning points in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The report highlights uncertainties in electricity consumption growth rates, influenced by economic growth expectations and monetary policy, which lead to significant market style fluctuations [6]. - Technological advancements and cost reductions in renewable energy and energy storage may not meet expectations, affecting the overall market dynamics [6]. Group 3: Policy and Reform - The direction of electricity market reform is confirmed, but the pace of implementation remains uncertain, which could impact future market conditions [6].