国泰海通｜宏观：美联储开启预防式降息周期——2025年9月美联储议息会议点评

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for two more cuts within the year, although the long-term pace of cuts is expected to be slow [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a unified stance among its members [2]. - The Fed is increasingly concerned about the risks to employment while maintaining a more optimistic outlook on economic soft landing [2][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Fed predicts ongoing inflation risks but is less concerned about short-term inflation impacts from tariffs, viewing them as "one-time" effects [3]. - The balance between employment and inflation remains crucial, with future rate decisions dependent on economic data [2][3]. Interest Rate Projections - The expected rate cuts for 2025 are likely to be limited to 75-100 basis points based on historical preventive rate-cutting cycles [3]. - The pace of rate cuts is anticipated to be slow due to the absence of significant economic deterioration [3]. Market Implications - A slowdown in the decline of U.S. Treasury yields is expected, with the 10-year Treasury yield projected to be around 3.8%-4.0% by the end of 2025 [4]. - The stock market, particularly sectors sensitive to interest rates like technology and real estate, is expected to receive ongoing support from the Fed's actions [4]. - The U.S. dollar index is anticipated to experience fluctuations, initially declining before stabilizing as economic conditions improve [4].