数据点评|财政支出趋弱，关注加码可能（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The broad fiscal expenditure continues to slow down, and the fiscal "toolbox" may have various means to counteract downward pressure on the economy [2][3][55] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [9][55] - In August 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to July, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 6%, down 6.1 percentage points from July [2][10] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly lower than the five-year average of 62.7%, and the expenditure completion rate was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8% [2][10][55] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Support - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure is likely due to the end of the large-scale support phase from government debt financing. As of the end of August, the net financing of national bonds, new general bonds, and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with a 72% issuance progress, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024 [2][15][56] - The issuance of special bonds supporting various sectors has largely been completed, indicating that the large-scale support from government debt funds for broad fiscal expenditure is nearing its end [15][56] Group 3: Economic Growth and Future Outlook - The support from fiscal funds for the economy may weaken in the future, as the issuance of new government debt approaches its end, making it difficult for broad fiscal expenditure to maintain high growth rates [3][19] - Factors such as the preemptive demand from "old-for-new" and "equipment updates" have been impacted by promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies, leading to a decline in retail growth and investment in equipment purchases [3][19] - Historical experience suggests that fiscal measures may include two types of policies: incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments and new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [24][56] Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Government fund revenue has significantly declined, dragging down the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue. In August 2025, government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal revenue increased by 2% [2][57] - The decline in government fund expenditure has led to a further decrease in the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure. In July 2025, broad fiscal expenditure grew by 12.1% year-on-year, down 5.5 percentage points from June [4][41] - The completion rate of government fund expenditure in August 2025 was 6.7%, lower than the five-year average of 7% [50][57]