热点思考 | 财政“下半场”，可能的“后手”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in supporting economic resilience in the first half of 2025, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3% [3][10] - Fiscal expenditures in the first half of 2025 showed a front-loaded rhythm and differentiated allocation, with a focus on debt resolution and rapid implementation of special refinancing bonds, amounting to nearly 1.8 trillion yuan [3][22] - Key areas of fiscal support included social security and employment, with expenditures increasing by 9.2% year-on-year, and scientific and technological expenditures rising by 9.1% year-on-year [3][22] Group 2 - The necessity and possibility of increasing fiscal measures in the second half of 2025 are highlighted, especially if economic pressures become evident, with potential adjustments to fiscal policies to meet GDP growth targets [5][40] - The article discusses two categories of fiscal tools for potential increases: one involving incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments, and the other involving new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [6][68] - Historical context is provided regarding past adjustments to fiscal budgets, indicating that significant changes have been infrequent, with the last major adjustment occurring in October 2023 [6][68] Group 3 - Current fiscal priorities are identified as risk prevention, transformation promotion, livelihood protection, and consumption stimulation, with a focus on addressing hidden debt issues at the local government level [7][74] - The article notes that new emerging industries and service sector development are key areas of support, as indicated by recent political meetings emphasizing new pillar industries [7][81] - Specific fiscal measures include the establishment of a childcare subsidy fund with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at supporting families with children [8][89]