【招银研究|固收产品月报】债市逆风仍存，维持中短债配置（2025年9月）

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - Short-term (1 month): The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - Medium-term (3-6 months): Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].