Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in indices are primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot, which indicates fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated, leading to a short-term impact on A-shares [1] Market Outlook - A slowdown in the market is expected to be more beneficial for the mid-term trend of A-shares, with potential profit-taking pressures and a need for re-evaluation of leading sectors [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous high of 3731 points from 2021, indicating a bullish trend, while other indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext still have room for catch-up [2] Hot Sectors - The technology sector may experience internal differentiation in September, with lagging sectors such as robotics, new energy, and military industries poised for a rebound [3] - Key trends include: 1. The ongoing domestic production and integration of robots into daily life, with potential catalysts from updates in Tesla's humanoid robot [3] 2. The trend towards semiconductor localization, focusing on equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] 3. Expectations of order recovery in the military sector by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in mid-term performance [3] 4. The innovative pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025 after a prolonged adjustment period [3] 5. The banking sector is seeing a recovery in mid-term performance growth, attracting interest from long-term institutional investors due to appealing dividend yields [3] Market Review - The market experienced a volatile pullback, with most sectors declining, yet the technology sector still showed some excess returns [4] - A significant number of stocks fell, with over 4300 stocks declining, while only a few sectors like electronics and communication showed gains [4]
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申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2025-09-19 04:47