Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean imports and the subsequent effects on domestic soybean meal pricing, highlighting the complexity of supply and cost narratives in the market [4][5][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The market's focus is on whether China will resume imports of U.S. soybeans, influenced by recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports and trade talks [4][6]. - The USDA's September report predicts a neutral supply-demand balance for the 2025/26 period, with ending stocks estimated at 300 million bushels, reflecting the impact of Chinese demand [5][6]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - If U.S. soybean imports resume, soybean meal pricing will likely be anchored to CBOT soybean prices, with potential upward pressure on prices due to supply constraints and weather impacts not fully reflected in reports [5][8]. - The article outlines a pricing logic where the market currently emphasizes supply increases while potentially overlooking rising costs associated with importing U.S. soybeans [8][9]. Group 3: Import Timing and Scale - The discussion on imports revolves around whether, when, and to what scale U.S. soybeans will be imported, with expectations of a possible agreement by mid-October [6][7]. - If trade resumes, a typical import volume of 23-30 million tons is anticipated, with the possibility of exceeding this depending on negotiation outcomes [7][9]. Group 4: Cost Considerations - The article emphasizes that while supply narratives dominate short-term pricing, cost increases from shipping and processing U.S. soybeans will eventually manifest, impacting domestic soybean meal prices [9][10]. - The potential for higher costs is compounded by the comparison of oil and meal yields between U.S. and Brazilian soybeans, which could affect profitability [9][10]. Group 5: Global Supply Context - Resuming U.S. soybean imports would place domestic supply within a broader global context of supply abundance, indicating that imports are more about redistributing existing stocks rather than eliminating shortages [10].
研客专栏 | 豆粕:成本传导与供给边际增长预期的错配?
对冲研投·2025-09-19 12:27