美国零售仍有韧性——全球经济观察第13期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - Government bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points [2] - Global stock markets saw more gains than losses, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2.2% [2] - Oil prices have increased, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising by 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index remained nearly unchanged compared to the previous week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, with a slight majority of officials indicating at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction to £70 billion [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has remained unchanged [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. retail sales showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August and a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [8] - New housing starts in the U.S. fell by 8.5% month-on-month in August, marking the lowest level since May, indicating continued suppression in the real estate market due to high interest rates [8] - Industrial production showed marginal improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in August, driven by a 2.6% increase in automotive and parts production [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The UK signed a technology cooperation agreement with the U.S., focusing on rapidly developing fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing [20] - Japan's CPI fell to 2.7% in August, with core CPI also dropping to 2.7%, the first time below 3% since last November, primarily due to subsidies on electricity and gas [20]