如何解读美联储9月议息会议再度开启降息︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its interest rate cut cycle by lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% after nearly three quarters of pausing rate cuts, indicating a shift towards risk management in monetary policy [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is based on a significant decline in labor supply and demand, a slight increase in unemployment, and reduced persistent inflation risks, suggesting a proactive approach to economic management [2] - The Fed's economic forecast indicates that GDP growth is expected to be 0.2% higher than previously anticipated, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, reflecting an outlook for a soft landing of the U.S. economy [2] - The dot plot released by the Fed suggests a higher likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with an increase in the number of rate cuts expected over the next two years [2] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The participation of newly appointed Fed Governor Miran, who voted against the rate cut and favored a 50 basis point reduction, highlights potential divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [3] - Miran's aggressive stance reflects a preference for rapidly lowering the policy rate to alleviate fiscal pressure, indicating that political influences may still affect the Fed's decision-making process [3] - The differing votes among Fed members suggest that the independence of the Federal Reserve may be challenged, leading to potential market volatility and uncertainty regarding the extent of future rate cuts [3]